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Vlada
Stankuniene
Demographic
Research
Center
Institute
for Social Research
Saltoniskiu
58,
Vilnius
08105
Lithuania
DEMOGRAPHIC
SITUATION IN
LITHUANIA
Rapid
changes, which started at the end of the 20th century
in all the spheres of social life of
Lithuania
, have been manifested through rapid, large-scale
demographic changes. In fact, the development of all the
demographic processes fertility, marriage, mortality, and
migration has been changing.
1.
Overview of demographic changes
1.1.
General demographic trends
For
more than ten years, enormous, rapid and fundamental changes of
the demographic processes (fertility, family transformation,
mortality, migration) as well as the population size and its
structures have been enduring in
Lithuania. In Lithuania the most outstanding
features of the demographic changes of the period are: a rapid,
large-scale decrease of fertility and increase of childbirth
outside marriage; a significantly lower number of marriages and a
growing number of cohabiting pairs; a rate of mortality,
especially for males, which after rather
broad fluctuations during the period of recent changes, is still
close to or even higher than the level of mortality registered in
the early sixties of the 20th century, i.e. 30 or 40
years ago; and radically changed patterns of external migration
the flows, amounts, and even types of migration have become
different.
The
changes of all the demographic processes (fertility, mortality,
migration, etc.) have been negative, and among the demographic
outcomes of the processes the most important are decrease of
population, loss of demographic equilibrium, depopulation, and a
rapid ageing of the population. Negative demographic effects have
been manifesting themselves through complex social and economic
problems. A rapid ageing of the population has shifted the ratio
between the producing and the consuming portions of the society,
and has posed new challenges on the national budget, social sphere
and development of services.
1.2.
Family and fertility
From
the beginning of the 1990s, in
Lithuania
as in all the countries with economies in transition, i.e. the
countries of Central and
Eastern Europe
, rapid family transformation started. Among them, such changes as
rapid decrease and ageing of marriage and fertility, the spread of
cohabitation, the increase of extra marital births, prevailed. It
could be assumed that the second demographic transition, which had
started in the North and West European countries about four
decades ago, followed by the South European countries some time
later, has, since the 1990s, turned towards the Central and
Eastern Europe, and to Lithuania as well. In examining the above
family changes in
Lithuania
, attention should be drawn to a number of factors, which hardly
fit into the accepted course and factor scheme of the second
demographic transition.
It
should be noted that beginning of family changes in
Lithuania
since the 1990s has been conditioned by some extra factors
unspecific for the Western countries. First, the changes and their
very rapid development in
Lithuania
were prompted by the economic collapse predetermined by radical
and rapid social, economic and political changes, followed by an
immediate and deep economic recession of several years
(1990-1994). During this time, the formerly rather modest
standards of living were dropping rapidly, the deepening well-being
differentiation of the population being one of its manifestations.
Thus, a strong effect of the situation on family formation and
fertility of the time can be hardly doubted, more so that decrease
in fertility and marriage was then the most rapid. At the same
time, transition from the centralised command economy to market
economy, which was already underway during the recession period,
was generating new living conditions. The formation of the labour
and housing markets, especially under the recession, caused
enormous discrepancies in the demand and supply of these markets.
The deviation from labour market equilibrium was expressed by the
vast lay-off and emerging unemployment phenomena (untypical until
that time for the command economy). Both of the phenomena had a
highly impoverishing impact on the certain groups of population (less
educated, less proactive, etc.), for which deprivation of some
social guarantees (e.g. for a job) available in the former system
were hardly solvable under the new conditions. The equilibrium in
the housing market, which was shaping under the existing great
shortage of housing inherited from the centralised economy, was
materialised under very high prices of housing. Under the dropping
standards of living, this not only restricted the chance to
acquire a housing unit at that time, but, worse, many people were
stripped of an opportunity to solve the issue in the foreseeable
future. All this served as important factors postponing family
formation and childbearing.
Thus
it can be hardly assumed that the specific essential changes of
the Western countries such as individualisation, increasing rights
and freedoms of the individual, identified by the originators of
the theory as the second demographic transition, could have had,
from the early 1990s, any influence on the changes of the families
which had just started liberating themselves from the Soviet-time
collectivism ideology and authoritarian rules.
However,
the increase of consensual unions in the very youngest cohorts of
marriageable age, the spread of extra marital birth, which started
growing fast in the previously rather conservative Lithuanian
society, leads to an assumption that in parallel to essential
social and economic changes the family transformation started in
the country in the first half of the 1990s. The deepening of
individualisation became obvious. In the rapidly liberalising and
westernising society in transit to the market economy, competition
was growing, individual freedoms were widening, and the previously
strict social control on all the aspects of the individuals
life was losing the grip.
Family
transformation has accelerated with origination of intensive short-term
migration flows between Lithuania and Western countries since the
mid-1990s, then the high unemployment in Lithuania pushed people (mostly
youth) in a mass scale abroad for the searching a job (often
illegal) and earnings. These were the extra factors for the
postponing of family formation and childbearing, destabilisation
of already created families, weakening of the ties between family
members (between partners, between migrating parents and children)
and adaptation (or imitation) of a new life style.
Overall,
it could be assumed that the rapid socio-economic changes and
instabilities of the initial stage in a way to market economy
served as a vigorous impetus for further rapid family
transformation. Later, with strengthening of market economy rules,
life style of individuals and all society has been changing
rapidly. It has predetermined beginning of fundamental changes of
family institution.
1.3.
Mortality
The
mortality trends from the beginning of 1990s have revealed the
negative mortality and health features (notably among males) that
had shaped over the few previous decades (from the soviet time)
and that are significantly different from the experience of the
industrial countries both by their changes, the decisive factors
and by the extent. Although since 1995 the mortality indicators
have been improving in
Lithuania
, the male mortality rate is still higher than four decades ago.
The mortality of Lithuanian population remains significantly
higher than in the old European Union Member States and other
industrial countries worldwide. In
Lithuania
, the life expectancy at birth of men is approximately ten years
and women five years shorter than in the old countries of the
EU.
Lithuania
falls behind most of the new EU Member States by life expectancy
of its population as well. Prevalence of unhealthy or even adverse
to health behaviour, and of the environment, which hinders the
formation of healthy life style attitudes and values, are the key
factors responsible for the negative health and mortality trends.
In the post-modern society these factors are playing an
increasingly important role for improving the health and lowering
the mortality.
1.4.
Migration
As
a result of the rising political, economic and social changes, the
volumes, trends and forms of migration have experienced essential
transformations in
Lithuania
during the last 15 years (after the restoration of independence).
In
the first years of
Lithuania
's independence political changes determined emigration flows to
the East (primarily
Russia
). In the mid-1990s, after the visa-free access to the most
Western countries was granted, undeclared and temporal migration
to these countries has started on a mass scale. Before the
accession to the European Union the most common type of so-called
irregular migration to the West was short-term migration of part
of the family (parents with no children; a spouse). At present
emigration flows from
Lithuania
to the Western countries are becoming legal, but at even larger
scale.
Until
recently, mass-scale emigration of the Lithuanian population to
the West, mostly young, was mostly triggered by scarcity of jobs,
poor opportunities to earn money and ensure at least a minimal
standard of living, high unemployment, especially among young
people, and by broad regional differentiation of job supply.
Mass-scale
emigration is one of the reasons of the observable decline in
marriage and fertility, growing family instability, and population
ageing.
1.5.
Ageing of population
Ageing
of population is perceived as a positive social change since it is
a result of the control of unwanted births and early deaths. A
long life is considered as one of the major achievements of the
humanity. However in the demographic development periods, during
which the age structure of the population experiences rapid
changes (is ageing), timely and motivated adaptive actions of the
society are required in nearly all the spheres. A new ratio
between the young and the elderly populations in the society urges
to review and to adapt the available economic (chances of
participation on the labour market, income level), political (power
in political and social organizations), social security (social
guarantees), health care (availability of adequate services),
human ecology (adequate housing, environment, infrastructure of
the neighbourhood, communication, etc.) and other resources to the
new requirements (Lithuanian, 2004).
2.
Main indicators of the demographic changes
2.1.Population
size and growth/decline
At
the beginning of 2005, the population of
Lithuania
totalled 3425,3 thou people, which is by 281 thou lower than 13
years ago (Fig.1). In
Lithuania
a decline of population started in 1992, at first, mostly because
of emigration. During 1992-2004, the number of the Lithuanian
population lowered by 227 thou due to emigration and by 54 thou
due to natural decrease (Demographic, 2005).
A
rapid depopulation has been going on during the last fifteen years.
The net reproductive rate has been rapidly dropping and hit 0.599
in 2004 (0.968 in 1990).
Figure 1.
Number of population in
Lithuania
(in millions)
Source:
Demographic, 2005
2.2.
Fertility and family
Low
fertility is the main reasons of the depopulation. The number of
births lowered from 56,9 thou in 1990 to 30,4 thou in 2004. Total
fertility rate decreased correspondingly from 2.03 to 1.26 (fig.
2).
Decline
of fertility has been affected by the significantly decreased
first and second births: in 1990 first births comprised 27,2 thou,
second births 20,6 thou, while in 2004 they made accordingly
15,2 and 10,1 thou babies. Third births correspondingly decreased
from 6,1 to 3,1 thou. The figures for fourth and subsequent births
have changed insignificantly.
Mean
age of women at the first birth is increasing since the mid-1990s:
in 1994 it was 23.04 and in 2004 24.84.
The
number of marriages fell from 36,3 thou in 1990 to 15,8 thou in
2001. During the years 2002-2004, marriages were slightly rising:
in 2004, 19,1 thou couples were married. The crude marriage rate
correspondingly decreased from 9.8%o to 4.5%o and rose to 5.6%o.
Mean age of women at the first marriage is increasing since the
beginning of 1990s: in 1992, it was 22.1 and in 2004 24,8.
Each year about 11 thou couples get divorced. In 1990, 100
marriages were counterbalanced by 35 divorces, and in 2004 by
58 (Demographic, 2005).
Figure 2. Total fertility rate in
Lithuania
, 1990-2004
Source:
Demographic, 2005
More couples have been cohabiting; however
this phenomenon is not easy to prove by statistics. The number of
children born outside marriage rose from 7% in 1990 to 28.7% in
2004 (Fig. 3).
Figure
3. Extra-marital births in
Lithuania
(in percentages)
Sources:
Demographic Yearbook of Lithuania , different years
The
2001 population and housing census showed that in
Lithuania
there were 65,4 thou one-parent (mother in most cases) families.
The
number of abortions has been declining since the 1990s; however
they are still more common than in advanced countries. In 2004, 11
thou abortions are made, or 46 abortions against 100 births, or 12
abortions per 1000 women aged 15-49 (Demographic, 2005).
2.3.
Mortality
Mortality
has been strongly fluctuating in
Lithuania
since 1990. The highest mortality level was registered in the
middle of the last decade. The most comprehensive and widely used
mortality and health indicator is the life expectancy at birth,
which in 1994 amounted to 62.56 years for men, and 74.86 for women
(in 1990 respectively 66.44 and 76.27 years) (Fig. 4). Regardless
of the fact that during the recent years mortality indicators have
been improving, in 2004 life expectancy at birth for men was still
lower than in 1965. That year male life expectancy at birth
amounted to 68.57 years, while in 2004 66.36, i.e. shorter by
two years, and female life expectancy at birth respectively made
75.42 and 77.75 years (Demographic, 2005).
Infant
mortality is decreasing and in 2004 constituted 7.9 per 1000 live
births.
Figure
4. Life expectancy at birth in
Lithuania
, 1959-2004
Sources: Statistical data, 1959-2001; Jasilionis, 2002;
Demographic, 2005.
2.4.
Migration
Illegal
migration included, emigration has accounted for a loss of about
245 thousand
Lithuania
s inhabitants during 1990-2004 (according to the estimations of
different experts even over 300 thousand); of these about 70
thousand emigrated to the CIS countries and about 175 thousand to
other foreign countries (Demographic, 2005). This data is not
precise, however.
2.5.
Ageing of population
Of
late, a second intensive wave of population ageing has been on the
rise in
Lithuania
. Within the last five decades the proportion of the people aged
sixty and over in the total population has risen by two thirds:
from 12% in 1959 to 16% in 1990 and to 20% in 2005, and the
proportion of children under 14 years has decreased by one third (from
27% to 17%). At present, in the population of
Lithuania
, people aged 60 years and over outnumber children. During the
last ten years elderly dependency ratio (60+) increased from 28,6
in 1995 to 32,2 in 2005, child dependency ratio decreased
respectively from 36,1 to 27,2.
Conclusions
With
the start of the economic transformations in
Lithuania
, the demographic processes (fertility, mortality, migration) have
been undergoing essential changes, too. Fertility has dropped well
below the level ensuring the replacement of generations. The
family institute has been basically changing. Among the young
people, a modern family pattern, with family making not related to
marriage as one of its essential features, has been gaining
strength. The level of mortality has been fluctuating.
Contemporary mortality level of males is at a higher level than
forty years ago. In migration, not only the trends, flows and
volumes, but the dominant types have changed as well. Population
ageing has been on the rise. For the first time in the peaceful
period of
Lithuania
s history, the number of the Lithuanian population has been
declining since the last decade of the 20th century.
REFERENCES
Demographic
yearbook 2004
(2005). Statistics Lithuania.
Vilnius
.
Jasilionis
D. Mirtingumas. Lietuvos gyventojai:1990-2000. Vilnius. Ed.
V.Stankūnienė, 2002.
Lietuvos
gyventojų politikos strategijos metmenys
(Guidelines of the Lithuanian population Policy)
(2004). Ed. V.Stankūnienė. Socialinių tyrimų institutas,
Vilnius, 146 p.
Stankūnienė
V., A.Jonkarytė, S.Mikuliuonienė, A.A.Mitrikas, A.Maslauskaitė
(2003). Šeimos revoliucija? Iššūkiai šeimos politikai. (Family
revolution? Challenges for family policy). Socialinių tyrimų
institutas, Vilnius, 388 p.
www.std.lt
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